Chase Elliott on the bubble as four drivers face Roval elimination

The Round of 12 opened with another spoiler as Ross Chastain took the checkered flag at Kansas. The field then raced into Talladega where yet another non-playoff driver stole all the glory with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. winning the race. This means no one got to automatically advance into the Round of 8 via a win this round, but that doesn’t mean no one is locked in.

Locked in or feeling good

William Byron actually earned enough points over the last two races to clinch a spot mathematically, so he has nothing to worry about at Charlotte. While not technically locked in, Christopher Bell at +57 and Kyle Larson at +52 are in a really strong spot to move forward. You will be seeing these drivers in the Round of 8 which is interesting, as all three made the Championship 4 last year.

Just keep it clean

After his cautious approach backfired at Atlanta, Denny Hamlin did it again at Talladega, but this time, it paid off in a huge way. When over half the field crashed on the backstretch, he was nowhere near the chaos and gained a mountain of points as a result. He now enters Charlotte +30 to the cut-line and just needs to avoid any catastrophic setbacks this weekend. Alex Bowman at +26 and Ryan Blaney at +25 are in similar positions. Collect some stage points, finish the race, and everything should be okay. However, history tells us that it never ends up being that easy.

On the hot seat

Regular season champion Tyler Reddick is just +14 points above the elimination zone and NASCAR’s Most Popular Driver is in the same boat. Chase Elliott is sitting on the bubble at +13. And remember, it doesn’t matter how many points you have if any of those four drivers below you go and win the race. As the bubble driver, you will be out.

Fortunately for Elliott, he’s not only won at the Roval but he’s the only active driver to have won it more than once. Reddick is also a very capable road racers with the second-highest average finish at the Charlotte Roval, as well as race wins at COTA, the Indy RC and Road America. At the end of the day, they may be racing each other on Sunday. Should a Briscoe or Cindric find their way into the lead and the drivers above these two don’t get into trouble, you have to avoid being the driver on the chopping block. Because of this, Elliott and Reddick will be keeping an eye on each other, just as much (if not more) than those behind them.

The two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion has a strange pattern he would like to continue year — he has made the Championship 4 in alternating years since the current format’s introduction (’14, ’16, ’18, ’20, ’22) while missing out the rest of the time. Unfortunately, unlike those he is chasing, he hasn’t had much success on road courses. He does have a pole and two top-five finishes at the Roval, but he will need to have his best showing yet to avoid elimination. Expect Logano to go for as many stage points as possible as he tries to bridge that gap to those ahead.

Joey Logano, Team Penske, Shell Pennzoil Ford Mustang

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

The Trackhouse driver took a bad situation and made it worse at Talladega, crashing himself while trying to aggressively blend into the pack after an early pass-through penalty left him a lap down. This is a difficult points deficit to make up, especially with the caliber of drivers directly in front of him, but it’s not all bad for Suarez. He is an excellent road racer and while success has eluded him at the Roval, Trackhouse has shown an uptick in speed recently and his teammate led half the race at Watkins Glen. He’s also in a difficult spot where he has to decide if going for points is the right play or if he should gamble it all and go straight for the win. Unfortunately, Suarez and the other two remaining underdog stories in the playoffs bring up the rear of the points grid, so it would be quite the upset if he could drag himself out of the elimination zone.

Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing, Freeway Insurance Chevrolet Camaro

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

Another Team Penske driver in peril, and how different things could have been for the driver of the No. 2 Ford. He was leading late at Talladega and could have absolutely won that race, but a bad push sent him spinning in the middle of the pack instead. While he could still point his way in mathematically, his only real shot is to go straight for the win. He’s never won a road course race at the Cup level, which is a surprise. He has a background in road racing and five of his 13 Xfinity wins came on tracks that go both left and right. He will have to dig deep and find a way to finally do that at the Cup level asap, or his playoffs will be over.

Austin Cindric, Team Penske, Discount Tire Ford Mustang

Photo by: Gavin Baker / NKP / Motorsport Images

Probably the most unique story of the playoffs surrounds this driver. Stewart-Haas Racing is just a few weeks away from shutting down, but Briscoe won the regular season finale and gave them one last shot at NASCAR glory. With the entire four-car organization rallying behind him, he bested champions Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski to advance into this round. Sadly, things have not gone nearly as well here and luck was not on his side at Talladega. Like Cindric, he has to go for the race win at the Roval. It’s his only real hope of keeping this dream alive for SHR. Like Cindric, he is a driver who showed promise on road courses in lower divisions, but he’s yet to find Victory Lane at such tracks in the Cup Series. But when we talk about a driver and group who have literally nothing to lose, there’s no one who fits that better than this No. 14 team.

Chase Briscoe, Stewart-Haas Racing, Rush Truck Centers / Cummins Ford Mustang

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

Playoff standings entering Round of 12 elimination race