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One of the major undoings for the Philadelphia Flyers last season was their goaltending. With some of the worst numbers in that department in the league, a promising campaign turned a corner at the final hour, and the Flyers just barely missed out on playoff hockey. With some new names in 2024-25, the situation could be much better this time around. But how?
The Flyers’ Goaltending Can Only Improve
Recently, I talked about how the Flyers’ league-worst power play last season took about 20 goals off of the board for them had they just been average (which is more or less a 20 percent conversion rate). Similarly, the goaltending hampered their potential—they had one of the best defenses in the NHL.
Related: Matvei Michkov Can Take Flyers’ Power Play to the Next Level
While the Flyers’ between-the-pipes play isn’t literally destined to be better, it is likely that they see improvement. Perhaps, that could be drastic. They allowed the seventh-fewest expected goals in the NHL (234.85), meaning that, with average netminders, they would have theoretically given up right around 235 goals. However, they allowed 258—a whole 23.15 more than expected. Combined with a futile man advantage, the team was crushed.
Following Jan. 18, the Orange and Black had the sixth-best defense in the league in terms of expected goals. The only issue was that they had a .852 save percentage (SV%), allowing four to six more goals per 100 shots than basically every team in the NHL. Goaltending (among other things, of course) effectively cost Philadelphia a chance at the playoffs, as the team lost nine of their last 11 contests and was eliminated in a down-to-the-wire race on April 16.
While the Flyers are running it back with a few of the same faces, that’s not as bad as it sounds. There’s some room for growth here, aside from the fact that their overall .884 team SV% seems unsustainable.
For starters, let’s get to the Flyers’ major goaltenders. Sam Ersson and Ivan Fedotov are almost surely the two men who will guard the net for the duration of the season, barring injuries or incompetence.
Ersson is the clear-cut starter here, and he’s an interesting case. On one hand, the 24-year-old was excellent for a decent portion of his 2023-24 campaign. From Nov. 3 to Jan. 18, he was one of the best in the business, posting a .930 SV%, 1.82 goals-against average (GAA), a 12-3-2 record, and allowing 14.63 fewer goals than expected in 17 games. On the other hand, he put up a .867 SV%, 3.39 GAA, an 11-17-5 record, and allowed 21.49 more goals than expected in his other 34 appearances. This Swedish goaltender’s rookie campaign was certainly unusual.
So, which version of Ersson will the Flyers get? The likely outcome is that it’s neither, but it’s important to highlight that season-long metrics cannot define his previous campaign. His story has to be told more deeply—he could be much better (or worse) than what the stats show.
With a less chaotic situation in the net, I lean in a more optimistic direction with Ersson. He didn’t have many options to take a heavy workload off of him in the last few months of the season, leading to his regression. If he doesn’t have to appear in 32 of Philadelphia’s final 38 games again (84.2 percent) due to the play behind him being even worse than his own, that could go a long way. But we’ll just have to wait and see.
As for Fedotov, he’s as unpredictable as they get. The 27-year-old was drafted in the seventh round by the Orange and Black in 2015, and he spent the rest of his career in Russia leading up to his NHL debut. He played a lot of professional hockey, which has recently been at one of Europe’s biggest stages, the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL).
Fedotov was a full-time KHL netminder from his 2019-20 campaign up until last season. Below are his ranks percentile-wise in SV% among the goaltenders with at least 10 games played in each season, according to QuantHockey:
- 2019-20: 77th percentile (.931 SV% in 32 games)
- 2020-21: 85th percentile (.925 SV% in 26 games)
- 2021-22: 63rd percentile (.919 SV% in 26 games)
- 2023-24: 35th percentile (.914 SV% in 44 games)
These numbers might not look all that impressive, but it’s worth noting that current NHL starter and possible future star, Pytor Kochetkov, peaked at the 82nd percentile in 2021-22 (.926 SV%). While Fedotov doesn’t appear to have the upside of someone like that, he very much has the potential to show he belongs in the NHL.
You might have noticed how Fedotov’s 2022-23 campaign didn’t appear here, and he saw a decent fall-off from 2021-22 to 2023-24. Well, he was detained for evading military service between those seasons, leading to not only missed time and regression but more time spent in Russia. You see, he was supposed to join the Flyers right after that finish in the 63rd percentile for SV% (a season where he won a championship), but the team’s plans were unexpectedly halted. Perhaps his development was stunted as a result.
At this point, we really don’t know what Fedotov will look like in 2024-25 and beyond. He’s under contract for this season and the next, taking up a pretty hefty $3.275 million against the salary cap. While underwhelming in a three-game sample size during a short stint with the Orange and Black, he has looked better (although not impressive by any means) in the preseason.
Ersson and Fedotov could form one of the worst goaltending duos in the league, but they could also be pretty good. The uncertainty here is both promising and worrying—they’re essentially boom-or-bust, by the looks of it. If they’re just average, that’d be a win, too.
Makiniemi & Kolosov Provide Genuine Insurance
As I mentioned, the Flyers didn’t have a backup behind Ersson last season to take some of the relentless workload away. While they have Fedotov now, he could have some issues between the pipes. If Philadelphia is in need of assistance, their emergency options have much more upside than what was present just a few months ago.
Eetu Makiniemi, who received a contract from the Flyers following a successful professional tryout (PTO) stint, appears to be the top choice behind Ersson and Fedotov. Just 25, Makiniemi has a decent chunk of American Hockey League (AHL) experience. Since 2021-22, he has a .906 SV% there, putting him in the 61st percentile for netminders with at least 10 games played over the past three seasons. As far as third-string options go, he seems to be capable—there should be hope for him if he’s called upon. He’s not a full-time backup or anything, but there is some upside.
For months, it seemed as though Alexei Kolosov would not only spend his entire 2024-25 campaign in the KHL (something that wasn’t supposed to happen) but potentially be traded to another team. Out of the blue, he came to the Flyers’ training camp and tensions have seemingly been resolved. If he and Philadelphia are indeed on the same page, that’s excellent news for the future but also the present.
Kolosov was taken in the third round of the 2021 NHL Draft by the Flyers, but his potential is far higher than where he was picked. While he hasn’t put up dominant numbers in the KHL by any means, Kolosov is only 22 with over 100 games in Russia’s best league to his name. He has never sunk below a .906 SV%, either, so he has shown developmental maturity for his age.
With high-end athleticism, Kolosov’s play could translate to the NHL almost immediately. In my eyes, he projects to be a great NHL starter at some point down the line anyway, so it wouldn’t be harmful to have him get some games in for the Flyers (at least, in theory). Of course, this would be the worst-case scenario, but if his services are needed and he is available, he’s a far better choice than what the team had to pick between last season, being Cal Petersen and Felix Sandstrom.
Sandstrom is gone, but Petersen is still in the system. Unfortunately, I think we’ve seen the last of him with the Flyers, though. After a disastrous preseason performance versus the Montreal Canadiens on Sept. 23 coupled with some of the worst stats in the NHL over the past few seasons, Petersen is just not suited to face off against hockey’s top athletes. I was willing to give him more time than most, but the chance for redemption has sailed. With two capable AHL netminders already, I’m not sure he’ll even play there. Hopefully, he can rejuvenate his career somewhere (he’s still only 29), but it probably won’t be in Philadelphia.
There are a few things that the Flyers’ 2024-25 season hinges on, but goaltending is one of the big ones. If all goes well, a fun season could be ahead.
