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By Sam McGuire
The reigning champions know that a win would take them five points clear of the Gunners. Quite the gap after just five matches.
But what else is on the cards this weekend?
Defensive woes for the Hammers
West Ham United have had a difficult start to the season under new manager Julen Lopetegui. The Hammers are 14th in the table having picked up four points from their opening four games.
Alarmingly, though, they are 16th in the Expected Points table. And the poor underlying numbers are likely tied to their defensive issues. Lopetegui’s side have given up chances worth 7.9 Expected Goals, the fourth highest in the Premier League.
It gets worse though. West Ham are also struggling in attack. They have created seven big chances this season and missed six of those. So, in a nutshell, poor in defence, wasteful in attack.
And they’re up against one of the best attacks in the Premier League this weekend in Chelsea. Enzo Maresca’s men are averaging two goals per game, an average that only Manchester City can better. If they click on Saturday afternoon, they could be set for another goal-filled match.
West Ham, having backed Lopetegui heavily in the summer, need to start to perform sooner rather than later.
A relegation battle
Ipswich Town have had a bit of luck this season. Southampton haven’t had any.
The two promoted sides, who have had completely different starts to the season, face off on Saturday. Both are looking for their first wins of the campaign. In fact, the Saints are looking for their first points of the season. Currently, they are one of two teams, along with Everton, to have lost all four of their opening games.
Ipswich, meanwhile, are on two points having drawn back-to-back games against Fulham and Brighton. Kieran McKenna’s side have been fortunate this term, to say the least. The Tractor Boys have the worst defensive numbers, their Expected Goals conceded total is 8.6, the highest in the Premier League. They’re also bottom of the Expected Points table.
Southampton are just unable to put the ball into the back of the net. It is as simple as that. They have scored just once all season despite carving out opportunities worth 4.6 Expected Goals. Their underlying numbers actually put them outside of the relegation zone. They’re creating chances and dominating the ball – they have also averaged the most possession in the Premier League.
A win at St Mary’s on Saturday could kickstart their season. Another loss and things could be problematic for Russell Martin and his players. Because good performances are only good enough for a certain period of time. Eventually, owners and fans want results.
Wasteful Red Devils
Manchester United have carried their inconsistent 2023/24 form into the 2024/25 campaign.
The Red Devils have played four, won two and lost two and their goal difference is currently zero. Unlike last season, however, they have deserved better. United have the third-highest Expected Goals total in the Premier League with 7.9. They also rank first for Big Chances Missed (12).
The main culprit for these struggles in front of goal is Joshua Zirkzee. The former Bologna striker arrived at Old Trafford in the summer and he scored the winner on his debut against Fulham. It was supposed to be a sign of things to come. But, so far, the finish against Fulham appears to be an outlier.
The Dutch forward has one goal from an Expected Goals haul of 2.7. There’s still time to right these wrongs but, eventually, his wastefulness is going to haunt United.
Fortunately for Erik Ten Hag’s side, in Crystal Palace, they’re up against another wasteful team this weekend. The Eagles are winless and have found the back of the net on four occasions this season in their opening four games. They have an xG of 5.6.
Saturday evening would be an ideal time for one of these sides to find their ruthless streak.
The Erling Haaland show
Erling Haaland has started the season like a man possessed. He has nine goals in his first four Premier League starts and he’s well on track to win a third successive Golden Boot.
The powerhouse Norweigan forward leads the way for Expected Goals in the English top-flight with 4.9. He’s also been the highest-rated FotMob player (8.91). He is the man not just for Manchester City but also the main man in the Premier League. Despite this, he’s going to have to perform against Arsenal on Sunday.
The Gunners managed him well in their meetings last season. He made three appearances against them and failed to find the back of the net. Given he’s the main goal threat for City, having scored 82% of their goals, he’s going to have to be firing if they’re to have any chance of picking up all three points at the Etihad.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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