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By Sam McGuire
It is around this time of the season that bubbles burst, good form becomes the norm and false positions are exposed. With this in mind, here are a few things to watch out for this weekend.
Stop Haaland, stop Manchester City
Manchester City are the top scorers in the Premier League this term with 13. They lead the way in the English top-flight with 13 points. The reigning champions lost Julián Alvarez this summer and people wondered how Pep Guardiola’s side would react to having just one serious goal threat.
So far, so good.
Haaland, burdened with being the only centre-forward for City, is thriving. The two-time Golden Boot winner has 10 goals in five matches this term. He’s been responsible for 77% of the goals the Premier League leaders have scored.
Since he arrived in England, City have become pretty reliant on their No. 9 for goals. But they always had the security of a backup attacker. It’s different this season though. With no Julián Alvarez, it is pretty much Haaland or bust. If teams find a way to limit the Norway international, they could have success against the champions.
Newcastle should take note.
The Magpies host City on Saturday afternoon looking to return to winning ways after their surprise 3-1 loss against Fulham last time out. It was a jarring result for Eddie Howe’s side. Prior to that, they’d been posting positive results this season. However, when you take a closer look at their performances, they had been fortunate.
They are 14th for Expected Points this term and only Arsenal (plus five) have outperformed their Expected Points by a greater margin.
That all-important first win
Everton and Crystal Palace are two of the six teams without a win this season. They face off on Saturday evening at Goodison Park.
The Toffees have dropped leads in their last four matches across all competitions. Against Bournemouth and Aston Villa, Sean Dyche’s side managed to lose both games despite being 2-0 up. They were knocked out of the Carabao Cup by Southampton while they could only manage a draw last weekend against Leicester City despite leading for over an hour.
To say Dyche’s men are struggling would be an understatement. They have conceded 14 goals, the joint-highest in the Premier League. They’re averaging just one goal per game and they have racked up just a single point. At home, they have lost both of their games, conceding six goals in the process.
Everton are ranked 18th in the Expected Points table.
Palace have been more unlucky than poor. The Eagles are 12th in the Expected Points table and have done more than enough to put more than three points on the board this term. Oliver Glasner’s men have drawn three of their five matches with goals being a genuine concern. They’ve found the back of the net on just four occasions. It is a far cry from the goalscoring form they showed towards the end of last season. It’ll click for the likes of Eberechi Eze and Jean-Philippe Mateta soon enough. Maybe it’ll happen at Goodison Park this weekend.
Winless Wolves
Wolves are another team without a win this term. Gary O’Neil’s side have picked up just a single point this term, losing four of their five matches. They have an identical record to Everton having scored five and conceded 14 in the Premier League.
In their last two outings in the English top-flight, Wolves have scored first but failed to hold onto their lead.
They host an in-form Liverpool at Molinuex this weekend on Saturday evening. The Reds have won four of their opening five matches and have conceded just one goal. Only Chelsea (11) and Manchester City (13) have scored more goals than Arne Slot’s side (10).
The visitors have a good record against their hosts. The Reds have won eight of their previous 10 games against Wolves. They have suffered just one loss during this run but that 3-0 win did happen to be at Molineux in February 2023.
Liverpool’s attack is firing, with Luis Díaz (five) only behind Haaland (10) in the goalscoring charts this term. This should be a formality for the Reds but we’ve seen this sort of game result in an upset in the past. An evening kick-off in front of a home crowd gagging for a win. It could be the perfect storm for hosts.
Results need to tally up with performances
So far this season, both Manchester United and Spurs have performed better than results would suggest. However, in a results-based business, which football is, performances don’t count for much. And that is why Erik Ten Hag and Ange Postecoglou are under some pressure heading into this match on Sunday at Old Trafford.
Spurs find themselves in 10th position in the Premier League despite being fifth in the Expected Points table. United are 11th in the English top-flight but rank fourth for Expected Points.
At surface level, both teams have struggled this term. Look a little deeper though and you’ll see that both teams are doing quite well. The Red Devils have just struggled in the final phase. They are underperforming their xG by 4.6, though they have outperformed their xG Conceded by 1.4. They’re at a net loss and at this stage of the season, with so few points on the board, it can have a huge impact on the narrative.
A statement performance and result for either side here could completely reshape how the start of their season is viewed.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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