By Sam McGuire
An expectant Emirates
Arsenal welcome Brighton to the Emirates this weekend with both teams looking to make it three wins from three in the Premier League.
The Gunners went to Villa Park last weekend and claimed a hard-fought 2-0 win over their hosts. Mikel Arteta’s side have now kept back-to-back clean sheets in the English top-flight and have a goal difference of +4 heading into this tie against the Seagulls.
Brighton scored a last-minute winner against Manchester United last weekend. This followed a comfortable 3-0 win over Everton at Goodison Park. Fabian Hürzeler has already put his stamp on things with the Seagulls and, perhaps more impressively, he’s managed to bed in a host of new signings this summer. Brighton have added to their ranks this week with Matt O’Riley moving from Celtic – albeit, he was injured just a few minutes in to his midweek debut in the Carabao Cup, and Ferdi Kadıoğlu, signed from Fenerbahçe.
The visitors on Saturday have an attack that has the potential to cause problems – something we looked at in a previous special feature.
Arsenal will be wary of this threat. They’ll want to keep things tight because, despite consecutive wins and four goals scored, the Gunners haven’t been creating much. Across their two games, Arteta’s men have racked up an Expected Goals total of just 2.1. For context, this sees them rank 14th for this particular metric and the likes of Wolves and Crystal Palace have a higher total.
By comparison, Brighton have an xG haul of 3.5 from their two matches. Yes, they have overperformed but they are creating high-value chances.
The hosts will want to limit the threat of their opponents and ease the reliance on a forward line that hasn’t quite clicked just yet.
A sticky situation for the Toffees
Everton lost Amadou Onana this summer but managed to keep hold of Jarrad Branthwaite. They also used the funds raised by the sale of the Belgian midfielder to improve their squad. Jake O’Brien joined from Lyon, Iliman Ndiaye returned to England following a season with Marseille and Jesper Lindstrøm arrived from Napoli on loan.
On paper, it was a decent transfer window for the Toffees. Everton had done well under Sean Dyche and many expected them to build on their performances last term.
We’re just two games into the season but things aren’t looking good.
Following their 4-0 loss to Spurs last weekend, Everton are rooted to the bottom of the table. And based on their performances, it is probably justified.
They have the lowest FotMob rating so far this season with 5.99. They rank second lowest for possession (33.9%), second lowest for xG (1.5) and their one shot on target per game is the lowest in the English top-flight.
Their xG conceded total of 3.9 is the third-highest in the Premier League this season.
They haven’t been unlucky, they’ve been poor.
The same cannot be said for their opponents this weekend. Bournemouth have drawn their opening two games. They had a winner against Newcastle United harshly ruled out last weekend and their performances have been encouraging. In fact, they have an xG haul of 3.5 but have found the back of the net on just two occasions. Sooner or later, these chances are going to be converted. Would it really be a surprise to see them cash in against a struggling Everton side at Goodison Park?
Jekyll and Hyde Blues
Chelsea ran riot at Molineux last weekend with a 6-2 win to give Enzo Maresca his first three points as the manager of the Blues.
They also put together a decent showing against Manchester City in the 2-0 loss during the opening weekend of the 2024/25 campaign. They finished the game against the champions with a higher xG total. People pointed that as a way to highlight what is to come under the former Leicester City boss.
However, against Wolves, the Blues lost the xG battle. Despite scoring six goals, Chelsea carved out chances with an xG value of just 1.68. They gave up opportunities worth 1.96 Expected Goals. People are turning a blind eye to that because of the result.
Things have been encouraging under Maresca but the fact remains that Chelsea, in their opening two games, have an xG total of 2.7 and an xG conceded total of 2.7.
They face a struggling Crystal Palace team this weekend. Oliver Glasner’s men have lost both of their matches in the Premier League this season and don’t look like the superteam we witnessed towards the end of last term. However, if matches against Manchester City and Wolves are anything to go off, the Eagles could trouble the Blues this weekend.
It’ll be interesting to see which version of Maresca’s team shows up.
Form goes out of the window
The final game of the weekend sees Manchester United play host to Liverpool.
The Red Devils lost in the final stages against Brighton in their last outing and needed an 87th-minute goal against Fulham in their season opener to pick up all three points. It hasn’t been the best start for Erik Ten Hag, now into his third season as Manchester United boss.
Liverpool, on the other hand, have a 100% record in the league this season having claimed 2-0 wins over Ipswich Town and Brentford.
The Reds have the highest xG and the lowest xG conceded in the Premier League. Arne Slot has wasted no time shoring things up defensively since the move to Merseyside.
On paper, Liverpool are favourites heading into this game. But as we’ve seen on countless occasions in the past, form heading into this game is irrelevant.
Manchester United have lost just one of their last five against Liverpool. Unfortunately for them, this loss was a historic 7-0 defeat at Anfield. However, Ten Hag has a good record against the Reds having won two and drawn one against at Old Trafford.
If he’s able to extend his unbeaten run against Liverpool at home to four, it’ll be a blow to his compatriot Slot.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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