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The 2024 United States Grand Prix kicks off the final quarter of the Formula 1 season with plenty of drama surrounding the sport.
Following Lando Norris‘ impressive triumph at the 2024 Singapore Grand Prix, the sport has taken almost a month’s break and return for the final stretch of an exciting and thrilling season. Norris’ win at Marina Bay closed the gap to Championship leader Max Verstappen even further leaving the margin at just 52 points for the final six rounds.
It’s not only the Drivers Championship that is a big topic of conversation, McLaren F1 Team took the lead of the Constructors Championship at the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix and now have a 41 point buffer to Oracle Red Bull Racing in second and with the Milton Keynes based squad struggling to find performance in their car, it could be another big points haul for Norris and McLaren.
One of the big storylines going into the weekend is Red Bull’s upgrade, which may see them correct their wrong development direction, although it’s not guarantee that it’ll fix the issues that Verstappen and Sergio Pérez have been facing since Miami. It may bring them closer to McLaren, which is a boost for Verstappen’s Championship hopes, especially after Daniel Ricciardo’s fastest lap on the last lap ensured that the Dutchman could beat Norris to the Championship by finishing second to the Brit in every remaining race. Red Bull will have less time to test their upgrade with just the one practice session in Texas as the Sprint format returns for the first time since the Austrian Grand Prix.
Another big storyline is Ricciardo leaving Formula 1 for Liam Lawson. The 35-year-old was performing admirably for Visa Cash App RB, beating teammate Yuki Tsunoda in comfortable fashion since the 2024 Canadian Grand Prix but Red Bull have looked at the bigger picture, bringing in Lawson to evaluate him against Tsunoda for a seat alongside Verstappen. Lawson did well when he came in for Ricciardo after a wrist injury kept the latter out of action for a prolonged period but the pressure wasn’t as high then as it will be now with a 2025 contract on the line. It’s certainly something to keep an eye on, not just in Austin but for the rest of the season.
The fight for the 2025 Red Bull seat also means that Pérez will have to lift his performances after a pretty torrid 2024 campaign so far. He sits eighth in the Drivers Championship, the last of the top four teams drivers and with Verstappen holding his own at the top of the Championship, the Mexican will have to pick up his performances between now and the season finale in Abu Dhabi to not only keep his seat but help Red Bull defend both titles.
TCF Predictions
Race winner: We predict that the race winner will be Lando Norris. The young British driver needs to come firing out of the blocks for the final stretch of the season and a win at Austin would really swing the momentum in his direction even more after a dominant display in Singapore. Verstappen finishing off the podium would also be the dream scenario for Norris this weekend.
Podium: Alongside Norris, we think Oscar Piastri and Verstappen will make the podium. If Piastri can make it a McLaren 1-2 in Texas then he’ll be getting a lot of gratitude from Norris but the Australian certainly has the pace to keep up with Norris and if he can have a consistent weekend, then he’ll be up there on race day. As much as Norris needs a Verstappen collapse at Austin, we don’t see it happening especially if Red Bull’s new upgrades perform. If Norris and Verstappen did finish first and third, it’s at least 10 points gained for the Brit though, and with a Sprint race this weekend, there’s plenty of opportunities to gain points on the Dutchman.
Surprise performer: We think George Russell will the be the biggest surprise of the weekend. The Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team driver has consistently been in the top five picture this season and has inherited podiums due to that consistency too. A surprise result could be on the horizon for Russell, but it really depends on how competitive the Brackley based squad are in Texas.
Disappointing performer: Lawson could have a tough opening weekend on his return to F1. A lack of practice sessions, with just one due to the Sprint weekend could pose an issue with getting a difficult car to drive in the right setup window, especially if he’s being compared to Tsunoda, who is comfortable in the VCARB. It would be great to see the New Zealander to have a positive weekend, but it may be a tough ask.