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By Karl Matchett
Shared stadium aside, reigning champions Inter are the ‘home’ team – and it’s hard to argue against absolutely everything being in their favour.
While Inter have started out the year with two wins, two draws and a very credible stalemate at Manchester City in the Champions League, for the Rossoneri it has been rather different. Their only win from four in the top flight came last week against the league’s bottom side, Venezia, and in midweek it was merely ten minutes of optimism before a chastening rest of the match as they were soundly beaten 3-1 by Liverpool after initially taking the lead.
Already there are dissenting voices around the club aimed at new head coach Paulo Fonseca, with some Italian outlets reporting if he doesn’t win the derby he’ll be out of a job. Igor Tudor, Edin Terzic and Thomas Tuchel are among those who have been linked, meaning a quick upturn in fortunes is required for Fonseca’s AC side.
Four league matches isn’t much to take in terms of data, but they are third in the league for possession and shots on target, second for corners and expected goals, first for penalties awarded and touches in the box. All of that points to attacking cohesion and creation of chances – yet at the other end of the pitch it’s a different story.
Six conceded could be dismissed as a false start if the numbers didn’t show they were leaking chances, but their xG conceded stands at 5.0, middle of the league, and the defeat at Parma highlighted an issue: four big chances allowed to a team which had 39% possession. While Parma’s total xG was lower than Milan’s own, much of Fonseca’s side’s chances came from set plays.
They are wide open, were soundly beaten by set pieces against Liverpool too and come into the derby with a fine front four, but massive concerns over the back five and midfield protection – plus goalkeeper Mike Maignan went off injured.
Inter have no such concerns. While not perfectly purring, they’ve created 14 big chances, they’ve conceded three goals. They are third for xG conceded and fourth for xG. There is balance, there is quiet expectation and there is a settled side – and above all else, in Simone Inzaghi, a head coach comfortable in his job.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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