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Ipswich Town head into the eighth round of Premier League fixtures above the relegation zone and three points ahead of a bottom two of Wolverhampton Wanderers and Southampton. Crystal Palace are in between with three points, completing a quartet of winless teams after seven matches.
Manager Kieran McKenna has overseen an incredible rise back to the top-flight for the Suffolk side, masterminding back-to-back promotions from League One. The target for any team promoted twice in two seasons is to stay in their new division.
Despite not yet claiming a win, Ipswich are demonstrating a handy knack for drawing more than those around them.
Ipswich are performing above expectations at both ends of the pitch
Yet there’s a threat to Ipswich’s Premier League status lurking in the underlying data. McKenna will be aware of it and plotting ways to avoid his team getting too close to their expected goals values. Ipswich welcome Everton to Portman Road on Saturday afternoon with both the lowest expected goals (xG) total and the highest expected goals against (xGA) in the Premier League.
According to Fbref, Ipswich’s six goals this season represent an above-expected tally when compared against a total xG of 5.0 for the season, or 0.71 per 90 minutes played (xG/90). Leicester City’s equivalent xG is 5.1 and only Ipswich, Leicester, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Everton have an xG/90 under 1.00 after seven games.
That doesn’t necessarily spell trouble so early in the season but Ipswich topping the xGA rankings at the same time is a concern. Only Ipswich and Leicester have an xGA value higher than two goals per game. Ipswich have the highest in the Premier League at 15.3, and thus the worst expected goal difference. They’re outperforming expectations at both ends of the pitch and must avoid xG and xGA becoming G and GA to dodge the drop.
Expected goals (xG) is a statistical representation of the quality of chances. For teams and individual players, it serves as a performance measure for what every good striker knows is the most difficult part of football: scoring goals.
The xG rating of a chance is calculated based on various factors such as its distance from goal and the angle from which it’s taken. Totalled up over seven games, Ipswich would have been expected to score the fewest goals in the division. Their xGA figure is simply the same thing added up at the other end. They would have been expected to concede the most.
Actual goals are what count and Ipswich have ground out valuable points against Brighton (conceding none) and Aston Villa (scoring two), among others, to confound the xG data. But they are, statistically, generating the worst total quality of chances in the Premier League and giving up the best.
Ipswich have a singular focus of survival this season and will be judged on that alone at the end of May. Expected goals data is an indication of performance and a useful tool for McKenna and his coaching staff, but nobody will care if Ipswich outperform it all season.
But with fixtures against quick starters Brentford, relegation battle rivals Leicester City and xG ranking leaders Tottenham Hotspur on the horizon, Ipswich will be eager to put themselves on a sturdier footing.