I said a few months back that it wouldn’t be until after their trip to South Africa that we could draw any conclusions about these All Blacks.
Away from home, against elite opposition, we’d see the scale of the job new coach Scott Robertson has in front of him and the likelihood that this team can legitimately contend for the Rugby World Cup in 2027.
Well, the All Blacks have the makings of a team.
No, they didn’t beat the Springboks in either test, but they could have.
They weren’t manhandled at the breakdown or annihilated in the set pieces. Far from it, in fact.
The All Blacks’ pack performed extremely creditably against the Springboks and can hold their heads high.
Established players, such as Codie Taylor, Ardie Savea and Sam Cane were excellent on the whole, while newer additions to the team like Tyrel Lomax, Ethan Blackadder, Tupou Vaa’i and Wallace Sititi showed they have the ability to compete with the best opposition around.
If the forwards had issues against the Springboks, it was in terms of impact off the bench.
New Zealand’s reserve forwards often battled to get into the contest and to adapt to the intensity.
I don’t think that’s a question of ability, necessarily, more about preparation and being able to immediately match the ferocity of those already on the pitch. I’m sure that can be remedied.
The world class Ethan de Groot is still to come back, so I hold no fears that the forwards will impede this team’s progress.
Robertson’s challenge is in the backs.
We’ve done the game-management question to death, so I don’t really want to indulge in that.
If Robertson believes TJ Perenara, Damian McKenzie and Beauden Barrett are capable of capitalising on the fine work of the forwards and savvy enough to close out games, then good luck to him.
My curiosity now is more about how toothless the All Blacks’ attack is and how they imagine they’re going to score tries.
I see a backline largely playing as individuals. Guys making a strong carry or putting in a clever, contestable kick, but few instances where try scoring opportunities are actually created.
If I think back to these tests in Johannesburg and Cape Town, the image that immediately comes to mind is Caleb Clarke carrying strongly down the left wing side in the first of those games.
That’s partly because those instances were so rare.
For the most part, New Zealand’s wings have been neither use nor ornament this season.
There to chase kicks, but very rarely put in space or given a chance to take on defenders.
Five times this season – including in Johannesburg and Cape Town – the All Blacks have failed to score a point in the final 20 minutes of matches.
Rieko Ioane, for instance, is arguably the team’s best ball-runner. In both Springbok tests he finished up on the left wing, presumably in an effort to give more one-on-one opportunities.
Did he even touch the ball? Was play ever actually directed his way?
Rugby’s changed from the days that I probably enjoyed it most, when men such as Christian Cullen, Jonah Lomu and Jeff Wilson were given ample ball and space.
Can we not provide that for the modern day back-three? Have rush defences stifled that entirely? Or do the All Blacks no longer possess players who can adequately distribute the ball to those outside them?
McKenzie, to me, is a scrambler who’s kind of doing his own thing, while Jordie Barrett and Ioane are run-first midfielders. I assume Anton Lienert-Brown is brought off the bench to provide more of a passing option, but his impact when not starting appears to be minimal.
And what of Leon MacDonald in all this? He was an attack coach after all and without him the All Blacks barely created a try scoring opportunity in Cape Town, let alone an actual five-pointer.
Is that coincidence or is the backline even more bereft of ideas without him?
That’s the glaring area of weakness now for this team.
The pack can compete, but their efforts are not being rewarded by those outside them.
The goal kicking – at least on the evidence of Cape Town – isn’t good enough that the All Blacks can win by solely accumulating three points at a time. Ally that to challenges scoring tries against the Springboks and you have a recipe for the unflattering win-loss record Robertson is now building.
I truly believe the foundations of a competitive team are there. They’re just not being built on.
