Tigers’ pitching creativity driving late-season run

\n\n”,”providerName”:”Twitter”,”providerUrl”:”https://twitter.com”,”thumbnail_url”:null,”type”:”oembed”,”width”:550,”contentType”:”rich”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”It’s partially about the trio of Matt Vierling, Spencer Torkelson, and Javier Báez being -10 OAA in April yet +2 in September, as Báez is out for the season due to injury, and Vierling is spending a lot less time at third base (where he rated poorly) and a lot more time in the outfield (where he’s solid-to-average). It’s partially also about Parker Meadows returning to cover every bit of grass in center field.\n\nBut it’s about in-season improvement, too, particularly with rookie second baseman Colt Keith, who endured a mid-season fielding slump (-4 OAA in June) and has been excellent ever since (+7 from July on), as well as from utility man Zach McKinstry and unexpected shortstop starter Trey Sweeney (+2), a piece of the Flaherty return.”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Video”,”contentDate”:”2024-09-18T00:31:01.071Z”,”preferredPlaybackScenarioURL({\”preferredPlaybacks\”:\”mp4AvcPlayback\”})”:”https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2024/2024-09/17/fc5799ac-da7ca610-6058b467-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4″,”type”:”video”,”description”:”Parker Meadows covers a ton of ground and makes the running catch to end the 3rd inning”,”displayAsVideoGif”:false,”duration”:”00:00:23″,”slug”:”hunter-renfroe-lines-out-sharply-to-center-fielder-parker-meadows”,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”InternalTag”,”slug”:”season-2024″,”title”:”Season 2024″,”type”:”season”},{“__typename”:”GameTag”},{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-116″,”title”:”Detroit Tigers”,”team”:{“__ref”:”Team:116″},”type”:”team”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”highlight”,”title”:”highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”in-game-highlight”,”title”:”in-game highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”game-action-tracking”,”title”:”game action tracking”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”vod”,”title”:”vod”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”game-story-highlight”,”title”:”Game story highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”high-speed-play”,”title”:”High Speed Play”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-678009″,”title”:”Parker Meadows”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:678009″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”defense”,”title”:”defense”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”eclat-feed”,”title”:”Eclat feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”international-feed”,”title”:”International Partner feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”fan-duel”,”title”:”Fan Duel”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”imagen-feed”,”title”:”Imagen feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”}],”thumbnail”:{“__typename”:”Thumbnail”,”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/hhwkkgbdauiqssms3037″},”title”:”Parker Meadows’ running catch”,”relativeSiteUrl”:”/video/hunter-renfroe-lines-out-sharply-to-center-fielder-parker-meadows”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”**2\\. Avoiding that third time through penalty.**\n\nWhile this isn’t exactly the way the Tigers might have wanted to plan it out, using openers and relievers in this way does allow them to avoid the dreaded ‘third time through’ effect, which states that pitchers become less effective the more times a batter sees them. For example, this year across the Majors, starting pitchers have allowed a .697 OPS the first time through, then are 34 points less effective the second time through, and 30 *additional* points less effective the third time through, up to .759. It’s the single most impactful thing keeping starters from working deep into games.\n\nAll this mixing and matching has allowed the Tigers to mostly avoid those dangerous third-time-through (TTO) plate appearances. Entering the day of the Flaherty trade, Detroit pitchers had the 20th-most TTO plate appearances. Since, that’s down to 28th-most, or third-least.\n\nThat’s nice, but it’s more than that, too. It’s not just fewer TTO plate appearances, it’s also that the team has performed much better in the ones they’ve had, dropping from a .786 OPS against to a .627 OPS, which is a huge improvement. That, as you’ll see in a minute, is a little about good fortune – about the obvious eye test that everything is going right at the moment – but also about what the opener strategy allows the team to avoid.\n\nConsider this: Part of the reason the TTO effect exists is because when the pitcher gets to that third time around, it’s not just that hitters are seeing the same pitcher again; it’s that the top of the lineup, which should be the opponent’s best hitters, are seeing them again. By having a reliever start the game, the “bulk pitcher” who comes in after would then be facing the middle or bottom of the lineup when his third time comes.”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”* *Through Flaherty’s last game* \n 78% of Detroit’s TTO PA came against top 5 of lineup (16th most)”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”* *The last 50 games* \n 70% of Detroit’s TTO PA came against top 5 of lineup (2nd least)”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”So the Tigers have reduced those dangerous third-time-through plate appearances, and they’ve made the ones that are remaining less risky, by having them come against the best hitters less often.\n\nThere’s a cost to all of this, obviously – the Tigers’ bullpen has been *heavily* used. There’s a reason teams don’t do this all season long. But it’s not all a fluke, either.”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Video”,”contentDate”:”2024-09-14T01:18:40.707Z”,”preferredPlaybackScenarioURL({\”preferredPlaybacks\”:\”mp4AvcPlayback\”})”:”https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2024/2024-09/13/aa5f4800-2a912b69-16850042-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4″,”type”:”video”,”description”:”Brant Hurter rolls through 17 consecutive batters in search of the first combined perfect game in MLB history”,”displayAsVideoGif”:false,”duration”:”00:04:29″,”slug”:”every-out-of-brant-hurter-s-perfecto-bid”,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”GameTag”},{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-116″,”title”:”Detroit Tigers”,”team”:{“__ref”:”Team:116″},”type”:”team”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-676428″,”title”:”Brant Hurter”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:676428″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”vod”,”title”:”vod”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”game-action-tracking”,”title”:”game action tracking”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”in-game-highlight”,”title”:”in-game highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”highlight”,”title”:”highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”pitching”,”title”:”pitching”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”highlight-reel-pitching”,”title”:”highlight reel pitching”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”game-story-highlight”,”title”:”Game story highlight”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”pennant-chase”,”title”:”Pennant Chase”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”2-yahoo-mlb-ads-feed”,”title”:”2-Yahoo MLB Ads Feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”yahoo-in-game”,”title”:”Yahoo In-Game”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”send-to-news-mlb-feed”,”title”:”Send To News MLB feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”imagen-feed”,”title”:”Imagen feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”apple-news”,”title”:”Apple News”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”eclat-feed”,”title”:”Eclat feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”international-feed”,”title”:”International Partner feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”fan-duel”,”title”:”Fan Duel”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”roku-vod”,”title”:”Roku VOD”,”type”:”taxonomy”}],”thumbnail”:{“__typename”:”Thumbnail”,”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/dpps6hgrm0z0i5b8zidn”},”title”:”Every out of Brant Hurter’s perfecto bid”,”relativeSiteUrl”:”/video/every-out-of-brant-hurter-s-perfecto-bid”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”**3\\. Keider Montero has been far more successful.**\n\nIt’s also in part due to the progression of Montero, who had posted a 5.03 ERA for Triple-A Toledo early in the season and was all of 36 2/3 ineffective innings (6.38 ERA) into his Major League career at the time this 50-game run began. He’s posted a 3.05 ERA in his last eight starts, he’s currently riding a 15-inning scoreless streak, and he was recently named AL Player of the Week.\n\nThat’s in part due to a new sinker he added in early August, which now represents 20% of his offerings to righties. Now: Should you really buy into a pitcher who has a mere 11% strikeout rate in September, one of the lowest strikeout rates of any regular starting pitcher? No, you should not, which brings us to …”,”type”:”text”},{“__typename”:”Video”,”contentDate”:”2024-09-16T18:46:40.256Z”,”preferredPlaybackScenarioURL({\”preferredPlaybacks\”:\”mp4AvcPlayback\”})”:”https://mlb-cuts-diamond.mlb.com/FORGE/2024/2024-09/16/15a8fcaa-07080edc-19419f79-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4″,”type”:”video”,”description”:”Tigers pitcher Keider Montero is named AL Player of the Week after throwing a shutout against the Rockies on just 96 pitches”,”displayAsVideoGif”:false,”duration”:”00:00:30″,”slug”:”keider-montero-is-named-al-player-of-the-week”,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-116″,”title”:”Detroit Tigers”,”team”:{“__ref”:”Team:116″},”type”:”team”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-672456″,”title”:”Keider Montero”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:672456″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”vod”,”title”:”vod”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”player-of-the-week”,”title”:”Player of the Week”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”mlb-network”,”title”:”MLB Network”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”apple-news”,”title”:”Apple News”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”imagen-feed”,”title”:”Imagen feed”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”roku-vod”,”title”:”Roku VOD”,”type”:”taxonomy”}],”thumbnail”:{“__typename”:”Thumbnail”,”templateUrl”:”https://img.mlbstatic.com/mlb-images/image/upload/{formatInstructions}/mlb/k9pbxlfqnplpdwfd7iva”},”title”:”Keider Montero is named AL Player of the Week”,”relativeSiteUrl”:”/video/keider-montero-is-named-al-player-of-the-week”},{“__typename”:”Markdown”,”content”:”**4\\. Good fortune has been on their side.**\n\nIt’s also in part due to simple good luck, which is less disrespectful than it sounds — of course this had to be part of it. Sometimes things go your way and sometimes they don’t, and it’s safe to say that for any team that ever serves as an elite run-prevention unit for this long, it’s going to be at least a *little* about some good-old-fashioned good luck.\n\nThe Tigers, in this stretch, have just a league-average strikeout rate, and the second-lowest BABIP in the game. Neither exactly points to an elite ability to keep runs off the board indefinitely.\n\nBut the point isn’t that the Tigers are guaranteed to keep this run going forever, both because they’re not, and because they don’t need to. There are only nine games left in the regular season. Skubal should start two of them, Montero two more, and also six of them come against the collapsing Orioles and the White Sox and their worst-in-baseball offense. If they manage to get to the postseason, then Skubal and their top relievers can take up a larger share of all the innings. It doesn’t have to work indefinitely. It just has to work for a few more weeks.\n\nAs of Thursday evening, the Detroit starting pitcher for Friday night’s game against Corbin Burnes and the Orioles is listed as: TBD, ahead of an Olson start on Saturday. It’s perhaps the most appropriate possible listing for a most unexpected run to contention.”,”type”:”text”}],”relativeSiteUrl”:”/news/tigers-pitching-creativity-driving-late-season-run”,”contentType”:”news”,”subHeadline”:”Detroit is riding a two-man rotation to elite run prevention”,”summary”:”For the last 50 games, the Tigers haven’t featured a traditionally functional starting rotation. That’s in large part because they’ve barely had a rotation at all.\nIn the span of two weeks in July, Detroit lost starters Kenta Maeda (demoted to the bullpen on July 11), Reese Olson (injured on”,”tagline({\”formatString\”:\”none\”})”:null,”tags”:[{“__typename”:”InternalTag”,”slug”:”storytype-article”,”title”:”Article”,”type”:”article”},{“__typename”:”ContributorTag”,”slug”:”mike-petriello”,”title”:”Mike Petriello”,”type”:”contributor”},{“__typename”:”TeamTag”,”slug”:”teamid-116″,”title”:”Detroit Tigers”,”team”:{“__ref”:”Team:116″},”type”:”team”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”player-tracking”,”title”:”Statcast”,”type”:”taxonomy”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-669373″,”title”:”Tarik Skubal”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:669373″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”PersonTag”,”slug”:”playerid-672456″,”title”:”Keider Montero”,”person”:{“__ref”:”Person:672456″},”type”:”player”},{“__typename”:”TaxonomyTag”,”slug”:”apple-news”,”title”:”Apple 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