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Khalil Rountree Jr. really shouldn’t be anywhere near Alex Pereira.
Though the two are set to collide shortly in the main event of UFC 307 this weekend (Sat., Oct. 5, 2024), Rountree hasn’t earned the opportunity. In fact, he’s barely proven himself a contender at all. Don’t get me wrong, everybody (aside from Sean Strickland) generally likes the exciting knockout artist, but the best win of his five-fight win streak is an old and timid Anthony Smith. There’s a fairly strong argument he should’ve lost the decision to Dustin Jacoby in 2022 as well. It wasn’t terribly long ago that the unheralded Marcin Prachnio defeated him by unanimous decision.
Rountree is certainly riding the best streak of his career, and a title eliminator wouldn’t be unreasonable as a next step. Having him leapfrog Magomed Ankalaev (and the other seven contenders ranked ahead of him) is a sign of desperation, however, a desire to pit the popular Pereira against somebody even if it doesn’t make much sense.
Really, that’s the sign of a dominant champion. “Poatan” hasn’t actually been a huge favorite in any of his previous 205-pound match ups, but three straight vicious and efficient knockouts will change public perception. His recent wins and the speed with which he accrued them have certainly boosted Pereira into the classic role of unstoppable champion, and the current betting odds reflect as much.
It’s not unusual for a dominant champion to face off with a wild card contender. Make mincemeat of the established Top Five and the contender search starts getting creative. That’s how Dan Hardy ends up in the cage with freaking Georges St. Pierre, and usually mismatches of epic proportion play out exactly as one would expect.
It doesn’t take an expert to breakdown Rountree vs. Pereira. “The War Horse” has never attempted a takedown in his 15-fight UFC career. He hits hard, but Pereira hits harder. Rountree has visited Thailand a few times, but Pereira is a former K-1 world champion. Even on his best day, there’s nothing in Rountree’s record or actual performances that indicate he should be able to compete with the champion.
The fun thing about MMA though is that we can see the same thing about Matt Serra or Julianna Pena. Most wildcard title shots end disastrously, but every once in a while, an outcome makes so little sense that it just has to happen. There was no logic at all in predicting Serra or Pena to defeat “GSP” and Nunes; the rematches demonstrated as much. Yet, it happened, and Rountree sure feels like he’s entering this title fight in similar circumstance.
There’s no quantifiable reason to back Rountree this weekend either, but that shaky feeling remains that a knockout win for the challenger is distinctly more likely than reason should dictate.