UFC Paris: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Moicano vs. Saint Denis

UFC Paris takes place this weekend (Sat., Sept. 28, 2024) inside Accor Arena in Paris, France. The main event pits two Lightweights known to finish fights, with Renato Moicano meeting Benoit Saint Denis. A win for either man could put them in the top ten of the rankings and within striking distance of the elites at 155 lbs.

The co-main is Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen at Middleweight. Imavov is ranked fourth, but he might very well get the Magomed Ankalaev treatment in this division due to his controversial win over Jared Cannonier and his overall lack of presence. There’s not much intrigue in this card beyond that. There’s a number of bouts featuring big local favorites against long shot journeymen.

The “Prelims” headliner is veteran Light Heavyweight Ion Cutelaba versus KSW favorite Ivan Erslan. Undefeated Light Heavyweight prospect Oumar Sy also features on the Prelims. He’s been given a warm body in the form of Da Woon Jung. L’udovit Klein, who looked lights out in his last performance, also appears. He’s a massive favorite against Roosevelt Roberts.

Let’s checkout the money lines on “Moicano vs. Saint Denic” and all the other bouts on the card …

UFC Paris Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Renato Moicano (+220) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-270)

There’s not much name value here, but Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis could be a very exciting fight. Both men can finish fights with their fists or their ground games. 47.5% of their pro fights, combined, have ended in submission victories. Moicano has six submissions against UFC opposition, Saint Denis has just two. Saint Denis has shown a lot of power in his striking as of late, though, finishing three UFC fights via stoppage (including a head kick against Matt Frevola — see it here).

Saint Denis is coming off the biggest fight of his career. He co-mained UFC 299 in March. That’s where he got melted by Dustin Poirier (see it here).

Moicano is coming into this fight off a win. He TKO’d Jalin Turner in his last fight, on the undercard of UFC 300 (see it here).

Interestingly, Saint Denis was looking pretty good until Poirier caught him with a KO shot. And Moicano was looking beat until Turner made a low fight IQ mistake for the ages.

The context around these results matter and that’s playing a role in why Saint Denis is a pretty decent favorite in this match-up. The bookies clearly don’t think there’s any shame in losing to a generational talent like Poirier.

Stats wise, these two are pretty even in height and reach. The main difference from a physiology standpoint in that Saint Denis is six years younger (and has less wear and tear on his body — 16 pro fights compared to Moicano’s 25).

In the UFC Saint Denis has shown much sharper, and heavier, striking than Moicano. Moicano lands a decent amount of strikes (4.38 significant strikers per minute), but these do not translate to knockdowns and finishes. Saint Denis, on the other hand, lands a little more per minute (5.7). But what’s most telling about his striking is that he lands 1.7 knockdowns per 15 minutes, which is good for second place in the division. Saint Denis absorbs a decent amount of strikes, but despite that he still leads the division in sig. strike differential (3.34).

Moicano has some of the division’s best striking defense, at 60%, but he still absorbs 3.68 sig. strikes a minute. If Saint Denis lands at that rate, I think his power is going to greatly affect the fight.

Moicano only allowed Turner to land 16 significant strikes, but that’s all he needed to hurt and put down Moicano. If he hadn’t made his silly decision to walk away as if the fight was won it’s very likely Moicano would have been finished.

Turner is a powerful striker, but his knockdown average (0.98) trails Saint Denis’.

In this fight I think we’re going to see Moicano try to avoid striking with Saint Denis. But I’m not sure he can avoid it for too long. Eventually he’s going to feel that power and then become desperate to have this on the ground.

Unfortunately for him, I don’t think the ground is a safe place for him to go. Because of that I’m just not sure how Moicano can win this fight.

Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis via TKO, round 2.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Nassourdine Imavov (-235) vs. Brendan Allen (+190)

Last time out Nassourdine Imavov was the lucky recipient of a very early TKO stoppage. He was losing in his main event date with Jared Cannonier in June, unable to deal with the pressure and clinch control of the 40-year-old ‘Killa Gorilla’. He was behind on the scorecards heading into the fourth round and knew he needed to finish the fight.

The shot he landed on Cannonier in the fourth was very hard and Cannonier was stumbling around. But he seemed totally clear headed when Jason Herzog (who is usually quite excellent) called the action to a close. I personally think Imavov was trending upwards in that fight and that if it had gone further he would have continued to land hard shots on Cannonier and would have eventually earned a TKO. However, we’ll never know that and, unfortunately, that win will remain fishy for many people.

The win followed a majority decision over Roman Dolidze in February. Imavov started well in that bout, but then tired and was lucky not to lose to Dolidze.

Brendan Allen is coming off a split decision win over Chris Curtis in April. Allen got the nod there despite being outlanded by Curtis. The takedowns were the story for Allen, though. Over five rounds he landed 6 of 13 attempts and was able to enjoy over six minutes of control time.

The win for Allen extended his win streak to seven fights (which started after his TKO loss to Curtis back in 2021). During his win streak he’s scored four rear naked choke wins. The most recent being against Paul Craig (see it here).

Imavov is the favorite here. But I’m leaning towards the American in this match-up.

Imavov’s takedown defense is very good, but not elite. He stuffs 76.9% of takedowns, which is good for ninth in the division. I expect that to be tested by Allen’s 51.6% takedown accuracy (which is third in the division).

Cannonier (owner of a 46% takedown accuracy) landed one of one takedowns on Imavov. Dolidze (who has a takedown accuracy of 40%) went 0-4. Sean Strickland (64% takedown accuracy) landed one of one takedowns, too.

If you look at Imavov’s success at defending takedowns, he has basically stopped everyone whose takedown accuracy is not around or above that 50% mark.

Imavov has never been submitted in the UFC. He’s only been submitted once (a guillotine in his second ever pro fight). I don’t think Allen will be able to tap him in this three round fight, but I think Imavov will be on the ground (with Allen on his back) for a lot of the fight and that this will mean a decision loss on home soil.

Prediction: Brendan Allen via unanimous decision.

Photo by Leandro Bernardes/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

William Gomis (+235) vs. Joanderson Brito (-290)

Joanderson Brito won a weird one last time out. At UFC 301 in Rio he was declared the winner after a cut on the shin of Jack Shore stopped the fight (see it here). Brito had been winning the fight and his leg kicks clearly caused Shore a lot of trouble. He also punched Shore’s leg a bunch when he noticed it leaking like a faucet. Shore tried to grapple his way out of trouble, but Brito is incredibly strong for his size.

That was Brito’s fifth win in a row. That streak includes stoppages of Jonathan Pearse (see his ninja choke here) and Westin WIlson. His only loss in UFC was a decision to Bill Algeo in 2022. That came after his Contender Series win over one Diego Lopes.

Brito was able to take down Lopes and land brutal ground and pound before an accidental eye poke ended the fight. That resulted in a technical decision win for Brito.

I think he’ll have just too much power in both striking, wrestling and grappling for William Gomis.

Gomis is 3-0 in the UFC with ho-hum decisions over Jarno Evans and Francis Marshall and a body kick KO over Yanis Ghemmouri (which may have been a low blow). Ghemmouri, if you’ve forgotten, is the guy who was +850 against Peyton Talbott earlier this year.

Gomis has a 60% takedown defense on paper. But Marshall, the only fighter he’s faced in UFC with a wrestling tradition, got him down 2 of 5 times.

I think Brito gets him down and beats him up on the ground over three rounds.

Prediction: Joanderson Brito via unanimous decision.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Kevin Jousset (+155) vs. Bryan Battle (-185)

Kevin Jousset is 2-0 in UFC, but hasn’t fought since December 2023. His debut win was a submission of Kiefer Crosbie (one of the worst fighters to feature in the UFC lately). He then got a decision win over the crafty Kenan Song.

After winning TUF in 2021, Bryan Battle has gone 4-1 and 1 NC in UFC. His best win is a 14 second KO over Gabe Green (see it here).

Jousset has managed to land a lot of volume in his UFC career, thus far. But I think that’s more down to his level of opponents than his prowess as a striker. Battle has been more ‘battle-tested’ in the Octagon and I think he’s just the more well-rounded fighter here. Vegas seems to agree.

Prediction: Bryan Battle via unanimous decision.

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Morgan Charriere (-850) vs. Gabriel Miranda (+500)

Former multi-division Cage Warriors champion Morgan Charriere is a massive favorite in this bout with Gabriel Miranda (who is coming in on short notice). He’s coming off a Fight of the Night split decision loss against Chepe Marsical in April (Mariscal was a late notice opponent there). Prior to that fight he earned Performance of the Night for his body kick TKO win over Manolo Zecchini in his UFC debut (see it here).

We haven’t seen Gabriel Miranda since he choked out Shane Young at UFC 293 last September. He was supposed to fight Billy Quarantillo in March, but he had to pull out. Miranda’s only other UFC appearance was a brutal TKO loss to our headliner Benoit Saint Denis (see it here).

Miranda gets hit too much to be competitive in this fight. He absorbs 6.88 significant strikes per minute and has a porous striking defense of 39%. Some of that would be excusable if he were landing a lot of strikes himself. But his 3.52 per minute output is mid at best.

Charriere is there to be hit, too. He has a negative striking differential (though not as extreme as Miranda’s).

I think Charriere will find a lot of success on the feet here and Miranda will fade away in the later rounds.

Prediction: Morgan Charriere via TKO, round 3.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Fares Ziam (-120) vs. Matt Frevola (Evens)

Fares Ziam has quietly put together a 5-2 UFC record. His best win is probably his unanimous decision over Jai Herbert last year. Matt Frevola is 5-4-1 in UFC and is coming off that head kick KO loss to Saint Denis.

Before that loss Frevola stopped Drew Dober to win a POTN bonus (see it here).

Ziam is very defensively sound, with 65% striking defense and 67% takedown defense. He leads the Lightweight division with significant strikes absorbed per minute with just 1.72. Unfortunately, he doesn’t do enough offensively to really make these stats shine.

Frevola is the polar opposite to Ziam in that he likes to attack and will take plenty of risks to do so. He is as cavalier in his striking as he is with his takedown game and generally puts on a fun fight whether he wins or loses.

I’m really not sure if Frevola’s offense is enough to trump Ziam’s defense, here. And I’m equally unsure if Ziam can do enough offensively to beat Frevola.

Ziam will have a decent reach advantage over Frevola (four inches) so he might be able to force this fight to be a very low volume kickboxing match from distance. If Frevola can’t get the takedown, he might lose a very forgettable decision.

Prediction: Fares Ziam via unanimous decision

UFC Paris ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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Ion Cutelaba (-125) vs. Ivan Erslan (+105)

Ion Cutelaba is being given a UFC debutante here in Paris. Ivan Erslan is a KO artist most known for his exploits in KSW. At the KSW Khalidov vs. Adamek show in February he knocked Bogdan Gnidko out cold.

Cutelaba is the favorite here. But that might be on name recognition alone. I think Erslan is a very live dog in this match-up. He’s a big Light Heavyweight and he has lots of power. I think he’ll get a chance to test Cutelaba’s chin here.

Cutelaba’s striking defense is sub 50%. His striking accuracy is sub 50%, too. So I think this could be a rough night if he stands and bangs with Erslan.

Erslan has plenty of warning signs, though. His striking defense isn’t very tight either. He’s very much a kill or be killed kind of fighter. With plus odds, I’m happy to risk it with him versus the very inconsistent, and often beatable, Cutelaba.

Prediction: Ivan Erslan via TKO, round 1.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Oumar Sy (-550) vs. Da Woon Jung (+375)

UFC have struggled to get Oumar Sy fights inside the Octagon. The super prospect had to suffer through three opponent changes before Tuco Tokkos was trucked out in front of him at the APEX in May. Tokkos didn’t take the fight seriously and seemed more interested in being on TV than putting up a serious challenge. Sy tapped him out after Tokkos chose playing to the cameras over defending the RNC (see it here). Sadly, the fight didn’t tell us anything new about Sy.

Da Woon Jung is on a three fight losing skid. He was submitted by Carlos Ulberg last year (see it here). In 2022 he was KO’d by Dustin Jacoby.

The UFC know what they have in Sy and there’s no way they want him losing in Paris at this stage of his career. Jung has good takedown defense, but Sy is a top level takedown artist. He should be able to get Jung down and score another submission win here.

On the feet, Jung will struggle to test Sy, too. Sy has an enormous 83 inch reach (five inches more than Jung).

Prediction: Oumar Sy via submission, round 1.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

L’udovit Klein (-1150) vs. Roosevelt Roberts (+650)

L’udovit Klein is a massive favorite here against Roosevelt Roberts. I think a lot of that has to do with his last performance, against Thiago Moises at UFC Louisville. Klein looked a very complete fighter in that win. He took Moises apart on the feet and was a total bully in the clinch.

Roosevelt Roberts is coming in on short notice for Nikolas Motta. He should probably have ignored the call when it came in. He’s coming off an armbar loss to Mateusz Rebecki, in a fight he missed weight for. In 2021 he was wheel kick KO’d by UFC Sphere hero Ignacio Bahamondes (see it here). He also has a submission loss to Jim Miller on his record. His last UFC win was against Brok Weaver (remember that guy?).

If the same Klein who fought Moises shows up in Paris, it’s going to be a very tough night for Roberts.

Prediction: L’udovit Klein via TKO, round 2.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Taylor Lapilus (-450) vs. Vince Morales (+325)

Taylor Lapulis put a beating on Cody Stamann at UFC Louisville this spring, landing 100 of 180 significant strikes thrown and avoiding five of six takedown attempts. The win got him to 5-2 in UFC (two stints) and followed his decision loss to Farid Basharat.

Vince Morales is returning to UFC after a two year abensce. In the Octagon he’s gone 3-5 with pretty respectable losses to Song Yadong, Miles Johns, Jonathan Martinez and Chris Gutierrez. Outside UFC he caught Teruto Ishihara with a d’arce choke and just slapped a Peruvian necktie on Hunter Azure.

I like Morales and I wouldn’t be shocked if he pulled out a crafty submission win over Lapilus. But the smart play has to be Lapilus, based on how good he looked last time out. He should be able to outbox and outpoint Morales for the win.

Prediction: Taylor Lapilus via unanimous decision.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ailin Perez (-240) vs. Darya Zheleznyakova (+195)

Everyone’s favorite Octagon tweker Ailin Perez won a grudge match with Joselyne Edwards at UFC 302 in June. She was the better striker in that match and she landed six takedowns. She also kept her cool, despite being headbutted on the ground. That unanimous decision win gave her a three fight winning streak, though all her past wins are against women no longer in the UFC (Edwards might not be around much longer, either).

Darya Zheleznyakova debuted with a win over Montserrat Rendon in March. She’s very raw despite being 28-years-old. Perez is better trained and I think she will be too athletic and dynamic for Zheleznyakova.

Prediction: Ailin Perez via unanimous decision

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Daniel Barez (Evens) vs. Victor Altamirano (-120)

Daniel Barez was submitted by Jafel Filho in his UFC debut last July. Victor Altamirano is coming off back-to-back decision losses to Felipe dos Santos and Tim Elliott. Altamirano will have a four inch reach advantage and he’s just the better striker of the two. Barez is probably the better wrestler, but I think Altamirano can hang with him enough there that he will be able to keep the fight standing and continue landing strikes.

Prediction: Victor Altamirano via unanimous decision.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Nora Cornolle (+175) vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-210)

Nora Cornolle was supposed to fight Germaine de Randamie at UFC Paris. However, the former UFC Bantamweight champ has been replaced by Jacqueline Cavalcanti. Cavalcanti took a split decision win over Josiane Nunes a couple of weeks ago.

I was a little surprised Cavalcanti didn’t get a unanimous decision win over Nunes, who she peppered with strikes on the backfoot for most of the fight.

Cavalcanti is very big for the division, but that doesn’t seem to slow her down.

Cornolle is also a larger Bantamweight. She missed weight for her TKO win over Melissa Mullins in April.

Cornolle is very faithful to her Muay Thai upbringing. This fight could look a lot like Cavalcanti vs. Nunes, with Cornolle coming forwards and Cavalcanti backing up. Cavalcanti did great with counters against Nunes, but she might struggle a bit with Cornolle’s more closed guard and straight punching approach.

I think this fight is closer than the odds suggest and that there is a path to victory for Cornolle, through her clinch game.

Ultimately, though, I think Cavalcanti will be too mobile for Cornolle and she will again find success with her counter striking.

Prediction: Jacqueline Cavalcanti via unanimous decision.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Bolaji Oki (-220) vs. Chris Duncan (+180)

Bolaji Okli beat Timmy Cuamba in his UFC deubt in February. Chris Duncan is 2-1 in UFC and coming off a submission loss to Manuel Torres (see it here), also in February. Duncan has a good win over recent Octagon winner Yanal Ashmouz. He was able to out strike Ashmouz and take him down twice. Oki was very active against Cuamba, but not terribly accurate. I think Duncan can slow him down with clinches and takedowns and earn a win here.

Prediction: Chris Duncan via unanimous decision.

Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC Paris Prop Bets, Parlays

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Paris card …

Two-fight parlay: Joanderson Brito to defeat William Gomis and Ivan Erslan to defeat Ion Cutelaba (+155)

Joanderson Brito should be able to over-power William Gomis at UFC Paris. He’s good enough to take him down, keep him and beat him up when he is down. Ivan Erslan is a live dog on the card and he has the power to turn off Ion Cutelaba’s lights.

Oumar Sy vs. Da Woon Jung Under 1.5 rounds (+114)

Oumar Sy is the top prospect on the card. He’s been given a very favorable match-up here and an opponent the UFC expect very little from. His takedown and submission game will lead to a quick sub.

Brendan Allen to defeat Nassourdine Imavov via decision (+350)

I think a lot of people are sleeping on Brendan Allen and may be picking Nassourdine Imavov based on the eye-test. Imavov has scraped by a lot of his top billed match-ups and I don’t think he will be able to stop the Allen’s takedowns. I think he’ll be able to defend the choke, but Allen will be able to suck up a lot of time hanging on his back or holding him against the fence. That will all equal a decision victory for the underdog.

Photo by: Joe Sohm/Visions of America/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

UFC Paris Poll Time

Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Paris fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 3 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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