Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 95 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Aug. 10, 2024) on ESPN and ESPN+ from inside APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a heavyweight main event between Top 10 title contenders Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac, a five-round headliner with major title implications for late 2024 and beyond.
It’s also a rematch of their 2020 affair, which ended in favor of “Tybur.”
Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the featherweight banger between Chepe Mariscal and Damon Jackson, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 95 main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Tybura vs. Spivac 2” odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings right here. For UFC Vegas 95 live results and play-by-play click here.
265 lbs.: Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac
Marcin “Tybur” Tybura
Record: 25-8 | Age: 38 | Betting line: +136
Wins: 9 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 9 DEC | Losses: 5 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 78” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.60 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.35 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 1.43 (33% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 79%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Submission win over Tai Tuivasa
Serghei “The Polar Bear” Spivac
Record: 16-4 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -162
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 78” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.54 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.79 | Striking Defense: 49%
Takedown Average: 4.56 (64% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 70%
Current Ranking: No. 9 | Last fight: Technical knockout loss to Ciryl Gane
Marcin Tybura has been fighting under the UFC banner for more than eight years and in that time has compiled a 12-7 record, which is kind of like 3.6 roentgen … not great, not terrible. The fact that Tybura has yet to crack the division Top 5 after eight years should tell you where his ceiling is located, evidenced by losses to Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov (both Top 5 fighters). That said, the Polish powerhouse typically performs well against the bottom half of the division or one-dimensional sluggers, like Tai Tuivasa and Walt Harris. For UFC Vegas 95, he’ll once again square off against Serghei Spivac, who like Tybura, has been around for awhile (more than five years) and can’t seem to get over the heavyweight hump.
“He for sure (improved),” Tybura said at the UFC Vegas 95 media day (watch it here). “I saw a couple of his fights, and he had a very good performance using his skills, throwing his takedowns, making submissions. I can see he gained some weight, muscles mostly, so he’s more power, more strong. For sure, he’s a different fighter.”
“It’s always excitement when the UFC calls, offers you a fight,” Tybura continued. “I’ve been here long and have lots of fights, but is still the same. I know how UFC was a big dream for me, so when I get the call, I’m always excited. Sure, I rather fight somebody that gets me closer to the top, but I feel like you can gain something in every fight.”
“I’ve been in fights where I’ve been really close to getting there, and I didn’t manage to do it, so right now I’m just trying to focus on the fight,” Tybura said. “That’s what I’m doing. It’s like my fight with Tom Aspinall, which was two fights ago. Right now, it’s like looking for some answers that I don’t know yet and look to see to be a Top 5 fighter.”
Spivac is 6-2 in eight fights since dropping a decision to Tybura at UFC Fight Night 169, just a few months before COVID-19 delivered us to the APEX era. Unfortunately, those two losses came against top-ranked heavyweight hurters Ciryl Gane and Tom Aspinall, proving “The Polar Bear” is not quite ready for the big time. Like Tybura, the Moldovan is well-rounded with his finishes spread equally across knockouts and submissions. His wrestling is where he really shines and Spivac currently holds the UFC record for takedown accuracy in the heavyweight division at 64.3 percent. In his first go-round with Tybura, Spivac was 0-1 in takedowns against 2-8 for “Tybur.” I would be surprised if that statistic was not flipped for this rematch because Tybura turns 39 in November and the 29 year-old Spivac is now fighting in his competitive prime.
“This is actually the first rematch of my career, so it’s not like I’ve felt this before,” Spivac said at the UFC Vegas 95 media day (watch it here). “But I don’t think about it in any certain way. We’re just close to each other in the rankings, so it is just set for us to fight again. I’m going to come out, I’m going to fight. It’s just a sport. That’s the way I feel.”
“I wasn’t as experienced back then as I was now, I was very, very young,” Spivac continued. “But I don’t want to look for excuses. He won. He won fair and square, and he did a great job back then. I think he still does a good job now. He’s a great fighter, so we’ll see what happens. But yeah, obviously it’s going to be a very different fight.”
I’m expecting a close, competitive contest that has “The Polar Bear” winning with a well-timed takedown late in the fight.
Prediction: Spivac def. Tybura by decision
145 lbs.: Jose Mariscal vs. Damon Jackson
Jose “Chepe” Mariscal
Record: 16-6, 1 NC | Age: 31 | Betting line: -218
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5’7“ | Reach: 69” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.70 | Striking accuracy: 52%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.68 | Striking Defense: 52%
Takedown Average: 2.35 (28% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 66%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Split decision win over Morgan Charriere
Damon “The Leech” Jackson
Record: 23-6-1, 1 NC | Age: 36 | Betting line: +180
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 15 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’11“ | Reach: 71” | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.00 | Striking accuracy: 41%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.29 | Striking Defense: 51%
Takedown Average: 2.51 (35% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 40%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez
Note: The promotion’s last-minute lineup changes (more on that here) pushed Jose Mariscal vs. Damon Jackson into the co-main event, which Andrew Richardson previously covered in his X-Factor breakdown (reposted below, along with comments from both Mariscal and Jackson).
I very much enjoy watching “The Leech” fight. He’s not the most athletic man on the roster, but Jackson knows how to use his range well, and he’s quite excellent on the mat. 30 fights into his professional career, Jackson appears to still be at his best at 35 years of age, which is an impressive accomplishment in its own right.
“The way the fans, the people look at it, I’m the underdog this fight,” Jackson said at the UFC Vegas 95 media day (watch it here). “It blows my freaking mind. I’m coming out there and making a statement for sure. He’s ‘the next big thing’ — I’ve heard this story over and over.(Movlid) Khaybulaev, Pat (Sabatini), all these guys. They throw out these names. Like yeah, the kid is good. He’s tough as hell, too, and I know he’s game to fight. I know this is going to be a great fight for the fans and definitely worthy of a co-main or main event spot. It’s a tough fight. I’m not looking past him in any way. Just mentally right now and physically right now, I’m just at a different level and he can’t handle me on the ground.”
Mariscal has shown a strong mix of skills as well. He was lucky to escape with the split-decision nod in his last bout versus Morgan Charriere, but even in that difficult scrap, Mariscal showed his grit and smarts to up the pressure, wrestle, and find success when the bout started out strongly in his opponent’s favor.
“With his IQ and everything else, he’s good at calculating his takedowns and everything else,” Mariscal said at the UFC Vegas 95 media day (watch it here). “I feel like he’s not that big of a brawler and if he runs into a brawler it’s kind of like, you know, a bad end for him, and I feel like this is that kind of fight. I feel like he’s really got to use his IQ to fight me. I definitely want a finish. I think he’s looking for a finish. I feel like if you have to do good in this business, you have to be a finisher and yeah, I feel like for the second it’s going to be the goal.”
I’m expecting a close and competitive fight here. Both can compete everywhere, so it’s not as simple as one man taking down the other and easily winning. Jackson has small advantages in height and reach, as well as a large edge in overall high-level experience. Mariscal, however, is the younger and faster man, two attributes that could make a huge difference as well.
Ultimately, what has me leaning toward Mariscal is simple volume. He throws more strikes and does so in combination, whereas we’ve seen Jackson’s output fade late (against Billy Quarantillo, for example). In a close fight where neither man can outright dominate on the floor, volume is very often the deciding factor.
Prediction: Mariscal def. Jackson by decision
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 95 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 95 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ preliminary card matchups, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN/ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 95 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archives here and here. For the updated and finalized “Tybura vs. Spivac 2” fight card and ESPN/ESPN+ lineup click here.
