UFC Vegas 98’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Royval vs. Taira

UFC Vegas 98 takes place this weekend (Sat., Oct., 12, 2024) inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event is Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira, a bout which could determine the next title challenger at 125 pounds. Royval has already had (and lost) his shot at Alexandre Pantoja, but he remains one of the elites at Flyweight. Taira is an emerging talent, but his perfect record (16-0) and destruction of Alex Perez can’t be ignored.

The co-main event has Brad Tavares suiting it up for the 25th time. He’ll meet fellow veteran. Jun Yong Park. UFC Vegas 98’s main card also has Grant Dawson vs. Rafa Garcia, Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono and Chidi Njokauni vs. Jared Gooden.

The “Prelims” are headlined by CJ Vergara vs. Ramazan Temirov. Also on the undercard we’ve got Niko Price vs. Themba Gorimbo (that could be your fight of the night) and Chris Barnett vs. Junior Tafa.

Let’s checkout the money lines on “Royval vs. Taira” and all the other bouts on the card …

UFC Vegas 98 Main Card Money Line Odds

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Brandon Royval (+185) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-225)

Taira improved his undefeated record to 16-0 with an odd victory over Perez earlier this year. Taira got the “TKO (injury)” win over Perez after a painful sequence that started with a standing back take. While on Perez’s back, Taira intentionally swivelled his body in a way that would fell Perez. The result was one of Perez’s knees twisting and forcing a collapse (see it here). Perez immediately grabbed his knee in pain, indicating a serious injury that could keep him out for some time.

Taira didn’t show much empathy for his opponent after this happened. He celebrated, which was his right, and then got a little silly on the microphone. Regardless what you think of these antics (I wasn’t that impressed), you can’t deny that Taira is a serious threat to win the Flyweight title. This weekend he’ll get a chance to prove that against Brandon Royval.

Royval is coming off a split decision win over multi-time Flyweight champ Brandon Moreno. That win avenged a technical knockout (injury) loss he suffered to Moreno back in 2020. Prior to that he lost via unanimous decision in a title shot against Alexandre Pantoja. And before that he blitzed Matheus Nicolau for a first round technical knockout win (see it here).

This is great match-making with a rising super talent against an established elite in the division. Taira is the favorite, thanks to his flashy record and even flashier results. But, I think this line should be closer considering how battle-tested and successful Royval has been at 125 pounds.

I think Taira wins this one and a big reason for that is Royval’s takedown defense (or lack thereof). He’s a 40 percent takedown defender, which makes him tied with Amir Albazi for worst takedown defense in the Top 10 of the division. Against Moreno, Royval was taken down three times on five attempts. Against Pantoja, he was taken down eight times on 14 attempts. And against Rogerio Bontorin, he was taken down eight times on nine attempts.

Taira’s takedown accuracy is 47 percent, which isn’t great, and he completes 2.35 takedowns every 15 minutes. However, in his last bout he went 2-2 for takedowns on Alex Perez. Perez is second in the division for takedown defense at 74.1 percent.

Based on these numbers, I think it’s pretty safe to expect Royval to end up on the mat in this one. If that happens he’ll have to deal with one of the slickest submission games we’ve seen in this division for some time.

Factor this with Taira’s improved striking, as seen with his knockout win over Carlos Hernandez (see it here), his youth and length advantage and it’s easy to imagine Royval having a very tough time on Saturday night.

However, mixed martial arts (MMA) is a game of intangibles. And Royval has some of those working in his favor. He’s been fighting the best of his division for a while now. That’s experience you can’t teach or fake. Taira’s record is impressive, but outside of Perez (who got the main event with Taira after a knockout win over possible bust Matheus Nicolau), his wins are against early “Prelims” fodder.

Because of Royval’s experience fighting at the top end of the division, and Taira’s lack of it, I’m hesitant to put anything on the moneyline here. Gun to head, I’d pick Taira, though.

Instead, I think the best bet for this fight is that it will not go to a decision. Taira has finished twelve of his sixteen pro fights and four of his six UFC fights. Royval is also a finisher, too, with only two of his UFC wins coming via decision (and one of those opponents was the impossible to stop Moreno).

I think it’s very possible that Taira gets some easy takedowns and his submission pressure leads a rear-naked choke win. However, I think there’s a chance Royval surprises the oddsmakers and manages to hurt Taira on the feet leading to a technical knockout or a submission of his own. My best bet takes both of those situations into account.

Best bet: Fight to go the distance – No (-160)

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Brad Tavares (+150) vs. Jun Yong Park (-180)

Brad Tavares put on a great show last time out. He went toe-to-toe with ‘Robocop’ Gregory Rodrigues before getting his lights turned out in the third round (see it here). Prior to that loss Tavares took a dominant leg-bruising decision over Chris Weidman and was put away by a Bruno Silva knee. Despite being 1-4 over the last little while (he also lost a decision to Dricus Du Plessis in that run) Tavares has still looked very competitive, in spite of his 36 years on this planet and 24 trips to the Octagon.

Jun Yong Park is coming off a split decision loss to Andre Muniz (where he was a -175 favorite). That snapped a four fight winning streak that includes three rear naked choke wins. The most recent of those was against Albert Duraev (see it here).

This fight features two very durable guys (Park’s only stoppage loss in UFC was a technical knockout to that man Gregory Rodrigues) with high motors and cardio. I think we’re in for a long fight here.

Park does have heavy hands and there’s a chance he might hurt Tavares on the feet and that we could see Tavares go down hill quick (like he has in his recent stoppage losses). However, Park’s primary weapon for ending fights are his submissions. To try any of those he’ll need to get Tavares down and that seems unlikely, given Tavares has some of the best takedown defense in the division (81 percent).

If there is a finish here, I think it comes late. For that reason I’m looking at taking the over. I’m expecting this to go the distance (and Park to probably win), but I’d like the extra security in case Tavares goes down late.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-250)

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Chidi Njokuani (-185) vs. Jared Gooden (+155)

Chidi Njokuani broke a three-fight losing streak by taking a split decision over Rhys McKee in March. His losses during that run included two ground-and-pound technical knockouts, to Michal Oleksiejczuk and Gregory Rodirigues (that man’s fist prints are all over this card). In all three of those losses Njokuani had minus odds. He’s had minus odds his entire UFC career.

Jared Gooden choked out Wellington Turman in his last fight (see it here). That was good for a Performance of the Night bonus. Before that he lost a unanimous decision to Carlston Harris, in a fight where he weighed in at 177 pounds!

This is Gooden’s second tenure in UFC. His first run in the promotion ended after going 1-3 with losses to Alan Joubain, Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Randy Brown (all decision).

Njokuani will have a size advantage over Gooden (three inches reach and height difference). Gooden is the slightly more active striker, but Njokuani is far more accurate with his significant strikes (61 percent vs. 49 percent). Njokuani also has better defense against sig. strikes (55 percent vs. 48 percent).

These guys are going to throw down and it could be pretty fun to watch.

Njokuani eats far fewer shots than Gooden. However, the ones that get through hurt him. He’s been finished five times by (technical) knockout, that’s half his pro losses. Gooden is very hittable (he absorbs almost seven significant strikes per minute). But, he rarely gets finished — only two out of eleven losses are via (technical) knockout.

I like Gooden’s durability in this fight. I also like that he’s five years younger than the 35-year-old Njokuani. Because he’s the underdog here you can get Gooden at +3.5 and I think that’s a great bet. This bet cashes if Gooden wins or if he loses 28-29 on all three scorecards.

Prediction: Jared Gooden +3.5 (-120)

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Grant Dawson (-500) vs. Rafa Garcia (+350)

Grant Dawson is our biggest favorite on the card. He’s coming off a smothering win over Joe Solecki. That win came after his stunning 30 second KO loss to King Green in his UFC main event debut (see it here). That Green loss stands as the only defeat on Dawson’s record.

Rafa Garcia is 4-3 in UFC and is coming off decision wins over Clay Guida and Maheshate Hayisaer. His losses are to Drakkar Klose, Chris Gruetzemacher and Nasrat Haqparast. And he’s never been finished. We know what we’re going to get with a Grant Dawson fight, takedowns and top control. He lands 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’s got just 38 percent accuracy, but Dawson makes each of his takedowns count, turning them into long periods of control time.

He took down Solecki once in each round (going three for three on attempts) and turned that into 13:42 minutes of control time. Against Damir Ismagulov he landed just three takedowns, too, (on five attempts) and turned that into 12:24 minutes of control time. Man’s a concrete blanket.

If Garcia’s going to win this he needs to not get taken down. Because if he does, he’s going to be stuck on the mat for the majority of the fight. Garcia’s takedown defense is pretty good, though. He stopped all of Guida’s three attempts in his last fight. And Klose went just two of 10 against him.

Neither of those fighters have the tenacity or single-mindedness of Dawson when it comes to taking the fight to the ground, though. And with Garcia not having the firepower in his hands to make Dawson think twice about shooting in, I think we’re going to see the oddsmakers proved right.

I think Dawson via unanimous decision is the best bet here. We’re in the APEX so we shouldn’t have to worry about any weird judging (like in Utah).

Best bet: Grant Dawson via unanimous decision (-110)

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Daniel Rodriguez (-200) vs. Alex Morono (+170)

Daniel Rodriguez did a real solid for the UFC back in June. He was scheduled to fight Kelvin Gastelum at the UFC Saudi Arabia card, an extremely important event for the promotion. When it became clear that Gastelum wouldn’t be able to make the Welterweight limit, Rodriguez agreed to fight at Middleweight. Refusing to do this could have forced a late shuffle of the card, which would have been a nightmare for Dana and co.. The brass had already had to deal with Khamzat Chimaev pulling out the main event and the Saudi’s being very selective over the replacement. Rodriguez agreeing to fight someone way heavier than him saved a lot of aggro and I’m sure he was rewarded for that backstage (we know he got a new contract out of the ordeal, too).

Rodriguez was a game opponent against Gastelum, but Gastelum used his size to bully Rodriguez around for a pretty boring decision win.

This plum match-up against Alex Morono might also be part of the reward Rodriguez is getting for sparing extra blushes in the desert. Morono looked dreadful in his last fight, a 15 minute beat down at the hands of Niko Price (while a -300 favorite). In the Price fight Morono looked anxious and was hurt early on, which prevented him from doing pretty much anything in the fight.

Despite being 37 Rodriguez still seems to have some decent energy about him. He’s lost three in a row, but the Gastelum fight should be thrown out for the circumstances around it. The other losses were to Ian Machado Garry (who is actually quite good) and Neil Magny (who was a terrible match-up).

Morono is going to kick-box with Rodriguez, so I think D-Rod should be able to get back to winning ways here. He’s got a slight reach advantage and is just a much more active striker than Morono.

Rodriguez lands a lot of punches, but he rarely scores a knockdown. Morono showed us that, even on one of his worst nights, he can’t be put away by a dangerous striker, so I think we’re on track for another fight that goes the distance.

Best bet: Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-160)

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Abdul Razak Alhassan (-155) vs. Josh Fremd (+130)

Josh Fremd’s terrible takedown defense (30 percent) was exposed, again, by Andre Petroski in his last fight. There Fremd was taken down three times and held down for almost thirteen minutes. That loss followed a liver punch KO loss to Roman Kopylov.

The 39-year-old Abdul Razak Alhassan was involved in a no contest in July, after his ‘Travis Browne elbows’ were ruled illegal at UFC Denver. Razak Alhassan was winning that fight, but even after being warned about it, he continued to blitz the back of Cody Brundage’s head with elbows until Brundage was unable to compete. Because MMA officiating is so weird this resulted in just a no contest instead of a disqualification.

Before this Razak Alhassan was submitted by ‘BodyBagz’ Joe Pyfer (see it here).

I don’t want to put my money on either of these guys. I’m tempted to fade Razak Alhassan because he’s turning 40 next year and Fremd has a three inch reach advantage. If Razak Alhassan is smart (that’s a gigantic ‘if’) he could target Fremd’s non-existent takedown defense and find a way to victory there (and he’s in desperate need of a victory).

Fremd also really needs a win. With both guys’ backs against the wall I think we are going to see some mistakes being made. Either man could over-extend on a punch and get knocked out cold. Or Fremd might let himself get taken down and pounded out. Either way, I don’t think this one goes to the judges.

I’m torn between whether this fight finishes in round one (+165) or round two (+300).

Razak Alhassan has seen thirteen of his fights end in the first round. Eleven of those were wins, one was a loss and one was that no contest. He has one second round finish (his last win against Claudio Ribeiro) and one second round loss (against Pyfer). He’s never had a fight finish in the third round.

All of Fremd’s finishes in UFC have come in the second round (he’s 1-2 in those fights).

I think Razak Alhassan will be dictating the pace in this fight, so I’ll stick with his trend here (and get the shorter odds).

Best bet: Winning Round – Round 1 (+165)

UFC Vegas 98 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

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CJ Vergara (+240) vs. Ramazan Temirov (-300)

I don’t know much about Ramazan Temirov. The bookies like the look of him, though, giving him short odds in his UFC debut. I watched his 2022 fight against Kayck Alencar and his 2023 fight against Yuta Hamamoto (both first round TKOs). He’s a very muscled up Flyweight. He throws a spinning kick to the body and has a ton of power in his right hand. He throws everything at one hundred percent effort. He’s currently on a nine fight winning streak with six first round finishes.

CJ Vergara is coming off a unanimous decision loss to takedown machine Asu Almabayev. Prior to that he got a wins over Vinicius Salvador and Daniel Lacerda.

If Vergara can get out the first round with Temirov, we might see all that max effort and muscle mass begin to weigh down on the new boy.

Vergara is a veteran and he might be able to get past Temirov by grinding him against the fence and taking him down. But if Temirov is able to land his best punch in the first round, this could be over quickly.

Because there are a lot of unknowns around Temirov I’m going to give a cautious bet here, just going over 2.5 rounds. That’s a bet based on the assumption that Vergara’s experience means he can avoid Temirov’s one big shot and drag him deep into the fight. If the other thing that might happen happens, I’ve got that covered in my Long Shot section.

Prediction: Over 2.5 rounds (-188)

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Jonathan Pearce (-135) vs. Pat Sabatini (+115)

Jonathan Pearce is coming off a decision loss to David Onama and a ninja choke loss against Joanderson Brito (see it here). Pat Sabatini has been out for about a year since he was TKO’d by Diego Lopes in the first round (see it here). Since his last UFC fight he did submit Niko Price with a Suloev stretch in pro grappling, though.

Pearce is a prototypical wrestle-boxer and he gets a lot of takedowns (5.24 per fifteen minutes). Sabatini’s takedown defense is just 50 percent. If this fight goes to the ground, though, Sabatini will be pretty comfortable due to his BJJ. There’s a chance this threat means Pearce opts for a boxing match instead, which he could probably win due to Sabatini being a far less proactive striker than he is.

But will an MMA fighter do the thing that is most likely to get him the win? We can never say for sure.

If a lot of this fight is spent rolling around on the ground, I think there’s a 50-50 chance of Sabatini getting a submission. If it stays standing I think Pearce has a great shot at winning a decision. Because he has more ways to win, in the end, I favor Pearce, but not by a lot.

Best bet: Jonathan Pearce moneyline (-162)

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Themba Gorimbo (-310) vs. Niko Price (+245)

Themba Gorimbo got a convincing win over Ramiz Brahimaj last time out. However, he looked out of sorts during the fight and on the mic he was very emotional. I suppose it’s a good thing that he could manufacture a decision despite having some things going on around him. Prior to this fight Gorimbo scored a 30 second KO over Pete Rodriguez (see it here).

Niko Price looked great in his last fight, getting a convincing decision win over Alex Morono. In that fight Price looked very comfortable and relaxed as he let his offense flow. That was Price’s first win since he beat Alex Oliveira back in 2021. Since then he’s been stopped by Phil Rowe and a retiring Robbie Lawler (see that first round KO here).

Gorimbo is a more clinical striker than Price and he has legitimate knockout power. Price is more creative, but far less accurate with significant strikes (43 percent to Gorimbo’s 69 percent). I think that accuracy could prove the difference here, since Price is known for his willingness to exchange. I think that could spell a finish win for Gorimbo. Due to the lack of props for this fight on DraftKings, at this time of writing, I’ll represent that view by going with the under.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-145)

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Sean Sharaf (?) vs. Junior Tafa (?)

Junior Tafa was supposed to welcome Chris Barnett back to the cage on Saturday. However, ‘Beastboy’ just pulled out. Tafa himself was a replacement fighter in this bout. Barnett was initially supposed to fight Waldo Cortes-Acosta in this spot. Our current match-up has 4-0 fighter Sean Sharaf coming in to face Tafa.

We last saw Tafa complaining about a verbal submission to Johnny Walker’s brother Valter (see that here).

Sharaf is 31-years-old and turned professional in 2021. He’s won his last three fights by first round stoppages.

There are no betting lines out on this fight at the moment. However, it’s heavyweight – bet the under.

Best bet: Fight does not go the distance

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Julia Polastri (-130) vs. Cory McKenna (+110)

Julia Polastri came off second best against Muay Thai specialist Josefine Knutsson in her last fight. Knutsson styled on Polastri on the feet, but Polastri was able to take her down a few times. This was Polastri’s first UFC fight since winning with a submission on the Contender Series.

Cory McKenna was submitted by Jaqueline Amorim last time out. There’s no shame in that since Amorim is showing herself to be one of the best BJJ players in the division (which says a lot given the competition at 115 lbs). Prior to that she beat Cheyanna Vlismas and Miranda Granger (via Von Flue Choke).

Polastri is the favorite despite having far less Octagon experience. She’s only been in there three times (twice on the Contender Series where she went 1-1 with a loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius).

Polastri will have a lot of reach on McKenna (five inches), though there are question marks over whether she can make that mean something in a fight, given how raw her striking looks.

I like McKenna as an underdog in this fight and I think she might be able to get Polastri down and control some good portions of the fight. However, this fight feels like it might have split decision all over it (which we often see in closely matched women’s fights — even in the APEX). DraftKings doesn’t have that prop available at this time of writing, so I’ll just stick with the over as my best bet here.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-425)

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Dan Argueta (+160) vs. Cody Haddon (-190)

Dan Argueta is coming off a submission loss to Jean Matsumoto and back-to-back no contests. The first of those was an early stoppage against Ronnie Lawrence (see it here) and the second was a decision loss to Miles Johns that was overturned for a positive test for a banned substance (details here).

Cody Haddon is an Australian prospect who won by submission on Contender Series in August. Haddon looked great on Contender Series, lighting up his opponent on the feet, scoring a knockdown and then securing the choke.

Haddon is the new shiny toy, but I think he’s probably good enough to get past this test.

Best bet: Cody Haddon moneyline (-190)

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Clayton Carpenter (-195) vs. Lucas Rocha (+165)

28-year-old Calyton Carpenter is 7-0 and coming off a submission win over Juancamilo Ronderos (see it here). Lucas Rocha is 17-1 despite being only 24-years-old. Rochas is coming off a knee KO win on Contender Series.

Carpenter is a big Flyweight (5’6”) and he’ll have a bit of a reach advantage on Rocha. He seems like a well-rounded elder-prospect and he should prove his favorite status good here.

Best bet: Clayton Carpenter moneyline (-195)

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UFC Vegas 98 Long Shots

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 98 card …

Ramazan Temirov to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+500)

Ramazan Temirov is a bit of a mystery man. He might be the second coming of John Lineker, ready to starch CJ Vergara with and overhand right. Or, he might be a mini Hector Lombard, who becomes as threatening as a flounder if you get him past the first round. At +500 let’s take a chance on Temirov being the real-ish deal.

Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Josh Fremd – First Minute Finish – Yes (+800)

This fight could be pretty nutty. Both these guys are desperate for wins and both have shown they can be on either end of a stoppage. If I were Razak Alhassan I would fake a takedown and go for a headkick at the 30 second mark. I think that would get the job done.

Tatsuro Taira to win via Submission in Round 3 (+1000)

Tatsuro Taira’s ground game is a joy to watch and it produces plenty of finishes. He’s facing his toughest opponent to date. If you believe Taira is going to get another submission win, but will have to work to get it, then you might like these odds of a third round finish. Royval has poor takedown defense, but good grappling, so we might see him fend of Taira on the ground for a bit before eventually succumbing to the pressure (and dozens of different set-ups and submissions attacks).

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 98 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 98: “Royval vs. Taira” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.