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By Karl Matchett
When Atlético are hosting Real, every inch and every moment matters, so LaLiga scheduling Carlo Ancelotti’s team to play Tuesday night and then Los Rojiblancos not until late on Thursday does feel somewhat skewed towards the visitors.
And yet, one or two situations might also favour Atleti. The absence of Kylian Mbappé, of course, will be one of them. The other – minor as it seems – might be the manner of midweek wins: Atlético will be boosted by a 90th-minute victory at Celta Vigo, while Real almost let a three-goal lead slip late on and lost their star striker in the process.
Following something of a summer revamp, much is still the same for Simeone’s side; the hope is that it’ll be the same, but better. So far they have the best defence, the most clean sheets, the third-lowest xG conceded (5.9) across their seven matches. Interestingly, Real Madrid are one of the sides improving on them in that regard (5.1), though they’ve conceded more in total.
But differences remain between the teams going forward. While they’ve both won possession precisely 114 times in midfield, Atleti’s 2.4 times per match average of winning the ball in the final third is one of the lowest in the division. For Real (4.6), it’s one of the highest. Atlético also have only 56% of the touches in the opposition penalty area that Real Madrid make – at 283 theirs is comfortably the highest in LaLiga – and unsurprisingly it’s Ancelotti’s side who are making, and taking, the best chances more often.
All the same, Mbappé’s absence – 7.0 xG this season in LaLiga, six goals and assists, 5.8 shots per 90 minutes – is a big one for Real to bear, regardless of the qualities remaining in the side. The Frenchman had found form, the team had found a way to serve him chances. Any alteration to that disrupts rhythm.
Atlético’s own star in attack, Antoine Griezmann, is in similarly strong form, but in truth Simeone rarely turns to an individual in a game like this: if Atlético want the points it’ll be about moments, about anybody at all on the team finding a way to find the net, just as Julián Álvarez did in the last minute in midweek. That, and a sixth clean sheet in seven league games, of course.
(Cover image from IMAGO)
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