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A week after clinching the World Rally-Raid Championship in the Challenger class, Rokas Baciuška returned to Lithuania with a surprising rumour he overheard about the 2025 Dakar Rally:
“It’s interesting to see what will happen because I’ve heard that it might not take place due to the war, but these are just rumours. I believe the organisers will do everything to make it happen.”
Baciuška’s comment, which came after landing at Vilnius Airport on Tuesday, quickly sent the Lithuanian rally raid community into a frenzy. Delfi, a Baltic news outlet, got to work on approaching his fellow compatriots for their remarks. Generally, those they asked were taken aback but sceptical.
“This is the first time I’ve heard such a rumour, and I haven’t come across anything like it,” said Vaidotas Žala, who plans to enter the 2025 race in a truck. “There are probably such rumours every year, but I have no information on this. Our plans remain unchanged unless we receive some official information. Since I haven’t heard anything, either on the rumour level or officially, I have no reason to consider such a scenario.”
The Dakar Rally currently takes place in Saudi Arabia, which is a relatively stable country and unlikely to devolve into wars or be marred by security concerns, the latter of which was the main reason why the race no longer follows the original route through Africa. However, fighting in the Middle East has continued to boil over since October 2023 with the war between Israel and Hamas, which recently escalated to include a theatre in Lebanon. The Jordan Baja, part of the FIA World and Middle East Baja Cups, was cancelled in 2023 due to Jordan’s proximity to Israel and Palestine; the 2024 race is currently scheduled to proceed as usual on 28–30 November.
Elsewhere in the region, Yemen is in a civil war where the Saudis back the sitting government against the Houthi movement, who has disrupted international shipping in the Red Sea by attacking civilian vessels. This has had some ramifications on those traveling to rallies in the region, such as Rodrigo Varela having to use a backup car at the 2024 Dakar after his original vehicle got stuck on a Saudi-bound ship that was targeted while CFMOTO Thunder Racing Team had to skip the Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge.
For the 2024 Dakar, the Amaury Sport Organisation banned national flags from being used on competitors’ vehicles. A formal reason was not given though many surmise it is to protect the racers—which is difficult enough for a race in a massive desert—from being targeted for their nationality. Such a rule did not exist for other rounds on the World Rally-Raid Championship, including Abu Dhabi.
“In today’s world, I wouldn’t be surprised by many things. But at this moment, there’s no official information,” Benediktas Vanagas told Delfi. 2025 will be his thirteenth Dakar. “However, it’s clear that the Middle East is under great tension. Saudi Arabia seems like a relatively safe place, but who knows what tomorrow will bring?
“Theoretically, could the Dakar be cancelled? Yes, it’s possible because that part of the world is heating up, and theoretically, anything is possible. A more pressing question will be the World Baja Cup event in Jordan next month. Last year it didn’t happen as Jordan is near Israel, Palestine, and other areas. But for now, it’s too early to discuss Dakar.”
Dakar veteran Antanas Juknevičius suggested to Delfi that an attack on Saudi Arabia during the rally, while unlikely, is not impossible. After all, the Houthis had launched missiles during the 2021 Diriyah ePrix and struck a nearby Aramco station amidst practice for the 2022 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. Before the 2022 Dakar, competitor Philippe Boutron suffered severe leg injuries when a service truck he was driving exploded in what French authorities surmised was an act of terrorism though a culprit was not disclosed. Despite these incidents, Formula One continues to race in Jeddah without issue, Formula E’s Saudi round is still on the calendar (albeit in Jeddah as well), and Boutron has since returned to action.
To this end, Juknevičius pointed out the Dakar Rally had gone through unstable countries during its Paris–Dakar run, and it was only moved to South America after a blatantly targeted terrorist incident in Mauritania that killed four French tourists.
“There have been many rumours in the history of Dakar, but they did not come true. It’s been said many times that the Dakar would definitely not happen, but they still went ahead and made it happen,” he explained. “However, there are some rumours who turned out to be true. I think anything is possible, so you have to watch the geopolitical situation.
“The fact is that the Dakar can be very useful for many people as an event, with its publicity, notoriety and global platform. And it could be the target of those warring countries in the Middle East, like the Houthis in Yemen, who are not that far away from Saudi Arabia.”
As it stands, the 2025 Dakar Rally is expected to take place as usual on 3–17 January.
